(Most of the information for this page was taken from Dr. Bert Thompson's The Scientific Case for Creation, Apologetics Press Inc., 1999)
Dr. Harold Morowitz, former professor of biophysics at Yale University, estimated that the probability of the chance formation of the smallest, simplest form of living organism known is 1 out of 10^340,000,000. One out of ten to the 340 millionth power is unimaginable odds. This large figure is a "1" followed by 340,000,000 zeroes. As you can see, Morowitz' odds against even the simplest life evolving were infinitely more than 1*10^50, making them impossible.
The very popular evolutionist, Dr. Carl Sagan of Cornell University, figured even steeper odds against the simplest life beginning naturally on a planet such as earth. According to Sagan, the probability would be about 1 out of 10^2,000,000,000. Try to imagine ten to the 2 billionth power. Pretty astounding odds. Interestingly, these impossible odds against evolution came from one of the most prominent evolutionists of our time.
According to evolutionists, we just got lucky. However, the odds against this luck have been shown above. Borel's law of probability should have been enough to refute evolution completely, but I know that the evolutionary "intellectuals" need more convincing data.
What Were the Odds For Evolution?
Borel's law of probability states that if the odds of an event happening are worse than 1 in 1*10^50, then that event will NEVER HAPPEN.
Here is a good mental workout: Let us attempt to figure the total amount of things that have taken place in the universe. Even evolutionists will agree that only a certain amount of events have taken place in this universe. If this total number of possible events is even barely close to the number of chances needed for the first step in evolution to take place, then we will agree that life did evolve from non-life. Here we go.
So how big is the universe? Scientists have estimated it to be about 5,000,000,000 light years across. To give the evolutionists a little help, let's assume that it is a million times wider, taller, and deeper. The new diameter would be 5*10^15, or 5 quatrillion light years. This will make our experimental universe 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 bigger than the real universe. Many events can occur in such a big place.
Remember, we are trying to figure how many events could ever happen. We need to know how many particles exist so they could do stuff through the ages. That's what we're calculating.
We should use particles a good bit smaller than protons, so that the evolutionists will have enough particles to do lots and lots of events. By volume, the real universe contains billions and billions of times more space than particles. Since we are attempting to determine how many events have ever occurred in the universe, let us give the evolutionists the benefit of the doubt by completely filling our experimental universe with particles. This will give them billions of times more events to produce life.
Protons are way too big. We are figuring the total amount of events that have ever taken place, and more particles can do more events. We should give the evolutionists lots and lots of particles so that life has a better chance of evolving. Therefore, we will be using particles having a diameter 1 trillion times smaller than protons. This will allow us to pack our experimental universe with (1 trillion)^3, or 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, more particles than would be possible with "large" protons.
Therefore, 1.2*10^59 of the "smaller than possible" particles lined side to side would stretch across the "larger than possible" universe. This should provide plenty of particles to interact and make life from non-life.
How many seconds are contained in 30 quatrillion years?
Dr. Morowitz postulated that life could evolve from non-life every 1 out of 1*10^340,000,000 events. The great Dr. Sagan calculated 1 out of every 1*10^2,000,000,000 events. However, only 8*10^240 events could ever be possible, in the entire universe, with all of the time possible.
According to Morowitz, we would need 1*10^340,000,000 events to produce life. Unfortunately, we would need 10^339,999,759 TIMES AS MANY EVENTS to have 1*10^340,000,000 events. Compared to Sagan's predictions, we would need 10^1,999,999,759 TIMES AS MANY events to achieve the odds necessary for life.
The total number of events ever possible was only 8*10^240. This was only 10% of 8*10^241, or 1% of 8*10^242, or 0.1% of 8*10^243. You can see that 8*10^240 was not enough events by any means to reach the number of events needed for the evolution of life. And we're talking about the most primitive, simple kind of life forming. These odds are impossible.
It is hard to argue with basic probability. Simple mathematics has helped us to realize that life could never evolve from non-life.